As families across Hong Kong prepare lanterns and mooncakes for the Mid-Autumn Festival, stargazers can finally breathe a sigh of relief: The city’s famously fickle weather is set to cooperate, offering a clearer view of the full moon after weeks of turbulent skies.
The Hong Kong Observatory forecast clear conditions for Monday evening, just in time for the holiday’s traditional moon-gazing rituals. Tropical Cyclone Matmo, which had been hovering nearby and casting a pall over the festivities, is drifting eastward, while a strengthening high-altitude anticyclone is ushering in drier air over southern China.
“Patches of cloud may linger in the morning and evening, but tonight and tomorrow should provide a good window for enjoying the moon,” said Lui Yuk-sing, acting senior scientific officer at the observatory, during a Monday radio interview.
The timing couldn’t be better for the Mid-Autumn Festival, a centuries-old celebration marking the harvest season with gatherings under the luminous orb. But this year’s lead-up has been anything but serene. Hong Kong has endured a record-breaking barrage of tropical activity, with the observatory issuing warnings for 12 cyclones so far — surpassing the previous high of 11 set in 1946.
Lui pinned the frenzy on unusually warm sea-surface temperatures east of the Philippines from June through September, which supercharged storm formation. Compounding the issue, the subtropical ridge — a band of high pressure that guides weather patterns — has repeatedly shifted westward, funneling more cyclones toward Hong Kong and the South China Sea.
“It’s been an exceptionally active season,” Lui said, underscoring how the warmer waters acted like kindling for the storms.
Even as autumn hues tint the landscape and temperatures dip, Lui issued a sobering reminder: The typhoon season isn’t waving goodbye just yet. Historical data from 2015 to 2024 shows five cyclones veering within 500 kilometers (310 miles) of Hong Kong as late as November or December.
With ocean temperatures remaining elevated and the subtropical ridge poised to linger westward through October and November, the potential for late-season surprises endures, he warned. “Don’t let the cooler air lull you into complacency,” Lui urged listeners. “Stay vigilant — the risk hasn’t vanished.”
For now, though, Hong Kong’s 7.5 million residents can savor the respite. Parks and waterfronts are expected to fill with families tonight, lanterns aglow against a hoped-for starry backdrop. The observatory advised light jackets for the evening chill, but otherwise, the stars — and that iconic harvest moon — should shine through.
