The very real dangers of turbulence were starkly highlighted last week when a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe turbulence, resulting in damage, injuries, and even a fatality.
Flight SQ321, a Boeing 777-300ER, was en route from London to Singapore on May 21 when it abruptly plunged 54 meters (178 feet) in just five seconds due to severe turbulence. The violent jolt led to dozens of injuries among the 211 passengers and 18 crew members on board, and tragically, a 73-year-old British man died of a suspected heart attack.
Only days later, another incident saw 12 people injured on a Qatar Airways flight from Doha to Dublin due to turbulence. These events underscore a growing concern among aviation experts and researchers who link the increasing intensity and frequency of such incidents to climate change.
Global Warming and Clear-Air Turbulence
While investigations into these recent incidents continue, experts suggest that the aircraft likely encountered clear-air turbulence (CAT), a phenomenon that occurs in cloudless regions and causes violent buffeting of aircraft.
“Clear-air turbulence is wind shear turbulence related to fast-moving streams of air that may collide, creating swirls of disturbed air,” Doug Drury, a professor and head of aviation at Australia’s Central Queensland University, told Anadolu. “As the name implies, it is clear and therefore not seen by pilots … CAT can last for some time before it dissipates.”
Damian Devlin, an academic specializing in aviation, added that CAT typically occurs at higher altitudes, usually above 15,000 feet, particularly between the core of a jet stream and the surrounding air. Unlike turbulence caused by thunderstorms or other visible weather conditions, CAT is not detectable by pilots, satellite, or radar.
Mohamed Foudad, a postdoctoral researcher in turbulence modeling at the University of Reading, noted that while it is not yet clear if CAT was responsible for the recent incidents, both flights encountered turbulence near the subtropical jet stream, which is conducive to CAT.
Damian Devlin, an academic specializing in aviation, added that CAT (Clear-air turbulence) typically occurs at higher altitudes, usually above 15,000 feet, particularly between the core of a jet stream and the surrounding air. Unlike turbulence caused by thunderstorms or other visible weather conditions, CAT is not detectable by pilots, satellite, or radar.
Research from the University of Reading, published last year, found that clear-air turbulence has increased globally. At a typical point over the North Atlantic—one of the world’s busiest flight routes—the total annual duration of severe turbulence rose by 55%, from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. The study linked this increase directly to climate change, stating that warmer air from CO2 emissions is intensifying wind shear in the jet streams, thereby strengthening clear-air turbulence.
Foudad, who has conducted separate research on trends in CAT over the Northern Hemisphere, attributed the recent rise in CAT frequency to climate change. “Future climate projections show that over several Northern Hemisphere regions, CAT is projected to increase in frequency and intensity,” he said.
Should We Expect More Such Incidents?
Experts caution that incidents of extreme CAT will likely become more frequent. “We can expect more turbulence events in the future as our global weather patterns are changing and increasing the threat of storms and CAT in certain areas around the globe,” Drury warned.
Devlin highlighted the University of Reading study’s finding that increasing CAT severity will make such incidents more common, particularly as the number of air passengers is projected to double by 2040. Climate researcher Leon Simons echoed these concerns, pointing out that the atmosphere is heating up much faster now than in previous decades, which could lead to more extreme weather, including increased turbulence.
Detection and Safety
The aviation industry is already working on measures to detect CAT and mitigate its effects. Drury mentioned that technology to predict and avoid CAT is currently in the research phase but will be implemented in the future. However, he noted that avoiding CAT-prone areas could increase flight times and costs.
Devlin emphasized the importance of increasing awareness and understanding of the issue, urging the aviation sector to seek solutions and enhance safety measures. He reassured that despite the rising incidents of severe turbulence, 2023 was the safest year ever for commercial aviation. “On average, a passenger would have to fly daily for over 125,000 years to encounter a fatal incident,” he said.
For now, experts advise passengers to stay buckled in during flights. “The most effective measure a passenger can take to avoid injury during turbulence, as it is with every aspect of their flight, is to follow the crew’s instructions and wear their seatbelts when seated,” Devlin emphasized.
As climate change continues to impact global weather patterns, the aviation industry faces the challenge of adapting to an increasingly turbulent sky.
