As conflicting weather models emerge, speculation mounts about the possible approach of a tropical cyclone next week. However, meteorological experts are urging caution, emphasizing that predictions beyond five days remain fraught with uncertainty.
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Diverging Forecasts
Initial projections from the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) on May 19 raised alarms, suggesting a significant tropical system could form in the South China Sea, with paths indicating a sharp turn toward Guangdong. This system was expected to come closest to Hong Kong around May 30, potentially making landfall near Shanwei.
Yet, updated GFS data released on May 20 painted a different picture, indicating a much weaker system. The latest forecasts show the strongest winds concentrated south of Hong Kong, with the storm possibly veering toward Taiwan by June 1. Notably, other major forecasting bodies, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Germany’s ICON model, do not support the development of such a system.
Experts Urge Caution
Leung Wing-mo, a former Assistant Director of the Observatory and current member of the Hong Kong Meteorological Society, stressed the limitations of long-range forecasting. He explained that predictions extending beyond ten days can carry errors of hundreds of kilometers, raising doubts about whether a storm will even materialize. “Weather systems can be influenced by the ‘butterfly effect,’ where minor changes lead to vastly different outcomes,” he noted.
Shun Chi-ming, former Chief of the Observatory, echoed these sentiments, deeming it inadvisable to predict cyclones ten days in advance. He pointed out that official forecasts typically project tropical cyclone paths only five to seven days out, with potential margins of error ranging from 400 to 600 kilometers.
Hong Kong’s Typhoon Season Outlook
The Observatory’s earlier forecast in March indicated that Hong Kong’s typhoon season may commence in June or even earlier, lasting until October or beyond. It predicted that five to eight tropical cyclones could enter the region’s 500-kilometer radius—considered normal to slightly above average. While May storms, such as last year’s Tropical Storm Maliksi, are not unheard of, they remain relatively rare.
A Warning Against Sensationalism
Both experts took issue with sensationalized weather reporting. Shun cautioned that if media outlets prioritize clickbait by exaggerating storm threats, informed citizens might ultimately dismiss important updates. Leung advised residents to stay vigilant and monitor official updates while avoiding overreactions to preliminary projections, noting that typhoon enthusiasts often end up disappointed.
As the South China Sea approaches its more active storm period from June onward, the observatory maintains its standard advisory: remain alert to official updates and prepare for what the season may bring.
